Record Surge in Student Visa Refusals Strains Tribunal
A record-breaking surge in student visa refusals is overwhelming Australia’s migration tribunal, and relief appears unlikely before late 2025 or beyond, according to Dr Abul Rizvi. As student visa refusals and appeals skyrocket, the Administrative Review Tribunal (A.R.T.) is struggling to cope amid insufficient resources and no immediate policy relief.
Backlog Hits Record High as Resources Lag
Onshore student refusal backlog at the A.R.T. jumped from 29,508 in March 2025 to 34,470 in May 2025, marking a new record high. Pre-COVID levels hovered below 10,000, revealing just how dramatically things have changed. At this pace, it may take years and substantial funding to reverse the trend.
Deep Structural Issues Behind Delays
The root problem spans multiple fronts. Over 100,000 onshore student visa applications are pending at the Department of Home Affairs, and nearly 75 percent of these are refused—often based on subjective criteria. Without major policy reform and a dramatic boost in tribunal resources, the backlog will continue ballooning.
No Relief Expected Before Late 2025
Dr Rizvi warns that new regulations may not emerge until November 2025, and even then, 6–9 months will be needed to hire and train staff—leaving backlogs unchecked through the rest of the year. If monthly intake continues, 2,000 new cases per month could further burden the system, undermining Treasury’s migration forecasts.
Graduate Visa and Cancellation Appeals Spike
Student-related appeals such as temporary graduate visa refusals have surged from 797 (June 2023) to 1,904 (May 2025), and visa cancellations have risen from 138 (June 2022) to 966 (May 2025). This highlights growing pressure across all student visa categories.
Total Backlog Could Exceed 100,000 Cases
The tribunal’s overall non-asylum migration backlog expanded from 46,371 in March 2025 to 53,036 by May 2025, up from 15,325 just two years earlier. Coupled with nearly 43,000 asylum cases, the total tribunal backlog may top 100,000 by year-end.
A Looming Political and Policy Crisis
These figures reflect a net migration boom fueled largely by student visas. As the government tightens policy and accelerates processing, other segments like permanent migration and asylum will face escalating pressure.
Public Trust and 2028 Election Implications
Experts like Rizvi stress the long-term cost. The backlash from prolonged delays impacts Australia’s public confidence and trust in immigration governance. Without decisive action soon, the backlog will be one of the major federal election issues in 2028.
