Fifty years on from Cyclone Tracy, the Northern Territory is bracing for another shake-up that could fundamentally change its parliamentary foundations.
The social and political ramifications of Cyclone Tracy led to the Territory in 1978 gaining self-governance and 24 years of Country Liberal Party reign.
A shift in voter patterns at the turn of the century favoured Labor, which has governed the Top End for 19 of the past 23 years.
With 153,000 voters enrolled to have their say at next Saturday’s election, some experts are predicting a new era in Territory politics.
“It’s been a very turbulent political system in the Northern Territory,” Australian National University and Griffith University professor John Wanna said.
“There is more disconnect and a lot of political volatility going on, disillusionment with political institutions.
“There’s about nine seats that are highly marginal. They could go to anyone … they could go independent.
‘We could very well see a change of government.”
NT’s unicameral parliament has just 25 seats and its low population means at least a third are considered marginal.
The CLP gained the seat of Barkly in the Territory’s centre by just a handful of votes in 2020.
About 93 per cent of the eligible population is enrolled to vote following federal efforts to boost participation.
In safe Labor electorates such as former chief minister Natasha Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff, independents have campaigned on integrity and the environment.
Ms Fyles resigned in 2023 over undisclosed shares.
Her successor Eva Lawler and rival CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro have campaigned primarily on crime, the economy and cost of living.
Both parties’ economic policies hinge on supporting two gas fields – the offshore Barossa project, near the Tiwi Islands, and the onshore Beetaloo Basin.
Each leader has promised to continue subsidising the gas industry if elected.
Australia Institute climate and gas policy advisor Mark Ogge said the NT government received about $2.6 million per year in royalty revenue from the industry, compared to $82 million in vehicle registration fees.
“That’s for the whole gas industry. The gas exporters don’t pay any royalties,” he said.
“The reality is, (politicians) talk about an increase in economic activity … but it’s unlikely that money ever reaches the Territory.”
During the construction of the Inpex LNG project in 2012, Territorians suffered inflated cost-of-living prices with capital-city rents rising to be the nation’s highest.
Darwin remains one of Australia’s most expensive rental markets for homes.
Labor has struggled to maintain morale within the NT police force during the long-running coronial inquest into the death of Kumanjayi Walker, who was shot by then-constable Zachary Rolfe during an attempted arrest in 2019.
Mr Rolfe was acquitted of murder during a five-week trial in 2022 and he is no longer serving as a police officer.
The Greens, who have never held a Territory seat but are targeting several electorates, have sought to draw a line between the NT being Australia’s most policed jurisdiction while also having some of the highest crime rates.
They have promised to reinvest funding into social services rather than courts, prisons and police.
But the major parties have remained steadfast in their focus on a tough-on-crime narrative, promising more resources to make the Territory safe.
The CLP is vowing to reverse a number of Labor’s justice reforms within the first week of parliament if elected.
Ms Finocchiaro has pledged to lower the age of criminal responsibility back to 10 and have serious violent offenders start with a position of no bail.
A plan to reduce Indigenous incarceration in the Territory, the Aboriginal Justice Agreement was signed in bipartisanship in 2022.
At the time, Ms Finocchiaro said she had “pushed hard” to ensure the CLP were signatories of the agreement because she believed it had the potential to reduce crime.
Many of Labor’s bail and mandatory sentencing reforms, which Ms Finocchiaro has promised to overhaul, stemmed from the agreement.
A damning royal commission into the protection and detention of children in the NT in 2016 handed down 140 recommendations.
They included raising the age of criminal responsibility to 12, a recommendation the Labor government legislated in 2022.
Ms Finocchiaro has said experts who made the recommendations got it wrong and she would instead listen to Territorians who were “sick and tired of being victims of crime”.
National Children’s Commissioner Anne Hollonds said governments were criminalising children with complex needs instead of addressing them.
“Politicising our most vulnerable children seems to be the best our politicians can do,” she said.
Ms Hollonds also questioned the CLP’s promise to reintroduce spit hoods for children in custody.
“I know that there are arguments that the police should be safe from kids spitting, but these are now banned everywhere else in Australia,” she said.
The “medieval tools”, as she described them, were banned after the royal commission recommended they cease to be used in youth detention facilities.
However in 2021 it was discovered a loophole in the legislation meant NT police had continued using them on children as young as 12.
Labor implemented an operational ban on police, but refused to extend the legislation.
“I really don’t understand why anyone would campaign on these issues, other than they think it makes them sound tough,” Ms Hollonds said.
“I mean, what a low bar, to sound tough on children.”
She likened public opinion on youth crime to the early 2000s when many rejected evidence of climate change.
“People didn’t want to hear the evidence then,” she said.
“We didn’t want to hear that climate change was real, but now we’ve accepted it. And its exactly the same with youth crime, people don’t want to know the truth about young people either.”