Senior Liberals fear a flood of donations from the Keep the Sheep campaign will be diverted to the Nationals if rank-and-file members don’t pick one of its leading figures as the party’s candidate in WA’s new federal seat.
Vet Holly Ludeman will on Saturday face off against army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree in a Liberal preselection contest for Bullwinkel.
Dr Ludeman has the support of influential WA Liberal Party figures, including Federal MPs, who have been impressed with her performance as one of the faces of the Keep the Sheep campaign to save the live sheep export trade.
If Dr Ludeman wins preselection, she will go head-to-head at the Federal Election with another high-profile industry advocate — former State Nationals leader Mia Davies.
But senior Liberals fear that if she loses then the party won’t just miss out on a strong female candidate but also major donations from the Keep the Sheep campaign.
“The WA Liberal Party has a lot riding on this (preselection),” one senior source to The West.
“If Holly is not preselected then you risk hundreds of thousands of dollars of Keep the Sheep funding being transferred to Mia Davies, and you risk sending a Nat to Canberra.”
“This is a test for the WA Liberal Party.”
Several senior WA Liberals believe Dr Ludeman is their best chance of beating Ms Davies, whose endorsement as the Nationals’ candidate is set to be rubberstamped on Saturday.
Ms Davies is scheduled to hold a press conference with federal National leader David Littleproud in Perth on Saturday morning.
One big factor counting against Dr Ludeman is the fact she only just joined the Liberal Party, meaning she is a relative unknown to the branch members who will decide Saturday’s ballot in Walliston.
Several senior Liberal sources said the outcome of the vote was almost impossible to predict, given Bullwinkel draws together members from branches previously spread across three seats.
Even the forecast rain in Perth could be a factor if it deters members from turning up.
Mr Moran, who was born in Kalamunda and raised in Boya, is hoping to secure the Bullwinkel nomination after a failed preselection bid in Curtin.
He is understood to have flirted with running in the northern suburbs seat of Moore being decided against it.
The candidate has campaigned on his connections to the community, as well as his experience in business, the military and media.
State Upper House MP Kyle McGinn has been nominated for Labor preselection but is expected to face a challenge from at least one other candidate.
The seat, which extends from Perth’s outer eastern suburbs to Northam, is shaping up to be the most hotly contested race at the next Federal Election with the Liberals, Labor and Nationals all believing it is winnable.
The seat has a national Labor margin on 3 per cent based on the 2022 federal election result.