When a jury in Lower Manhattan delivers its verdict in the criminal trial against Donald Trump, millions of people will be on the edge of their seats waiting to hear whether the president of the United States has been found guilty of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. And then, depending on what the jury says, the next question could very well be: Is this guy finally going to be thrown in prison?
If Trump is found guilty, the actual answer will come during a separate sentencing hearing. And while many believe there is absolutely no chance that Judge Juan Merchan will sentence a former president (and current presidential candidate) to time behind bars, former federal prosecutors who once worked for the office that brought this case against Trump are predicting otherwise.
“This is not a one-off, ‘Oops, I made a mistake on my business records,’ or even a one-off scheme,” Diana Florence, a former prosecutor with the Manhattan DA, told Politico. “Given the entirety of the facts and circumstances that came out during the trial, I believe, if convicted, a sentence of incarceration is warranted and justified. If I were the prosecutor, I would absolutely be asking for state prison.” (Each of the 34 felony counts Trump was charged with carries a maximum sentence of four years; if convicted on more than one, he would almost undoubtedly serve the sentences concurrently.) Former Manhattan assistant district attorney Stuart Meissner also believes Trump will do time if convicted, telling Politico: “I think, knowing most judges in New York, they’re going to want to show that no one is above the law, and therefore he would likely sentence him to a term of incarceration. I don’t think much, but I think it would be included just to show that point.”
As Politico notes, even if Trump is convicted, Merchan could choose not to sentence him to time in prison. Among the other possibilities are probation, which would force the ex-president to periodically check in with a probation officer, and “conditional discharge,” which would allow him to avoid meeting regularly with a probation officer so long as he doesn’t commit other crimes. Also on the table is community service, and even the people who desperately want to see the former guy do time might be satisfied with the image of him picking up trash on the side of the highway. Merchan would consider a number of factors in deciding what sentence to hand down, including whether the defendant has any prior convictions (he shockingly does not), if he’s shown remorse (pigs will sooner fly), and if he’s a danger to the community (very much so, some would argue).
And while Florence and Meissner see prison time in Trump’s future, others have cast doubt. “Judge Merchan is not known, from what I know of his reputation, as a draconian sentencer,” Peter Tilem, a defense lawyer and former assistant district attorney, told Politico. “He’s not known to be the toughest sentencer in the building. I don’t think that he would start with this particular case.” On the other hand? “When you’re talking about this case, and Donald Trump in general, but particularly this case, all the rules are out the window, and so there’s no guarantees,” he said.