In politics, as in sports (and life), there is enormous power in being underestimated. It can be a kind of superpower. And I have a strong feeling that Donald Trump and the Republican Party have only begun to experience the potentially fatal consequences of underestimating Kamala Harris.
Many in the GOP leadership believed that they were on the verge of crushing what little political life remained in Joe Biden. Then, as the president dropped out of the race, Trump’s campaign strategists appeared to jump to the conclusion that Harris was the second-best thing. In their fever dreams, Harris was seen as a weak candidate who’d had everything in life handed to her on a DEI plate. Who reflected the most liberal dreams of San Francisco “radicals.” Who was kind of “out there.” (Note to Republicans: Check out Exhibit A, one J.D. Vance.)
But in politics, preconceptions can bite you pretty quickly. Harris has come out of the box roaring like a lion and is already blowing away expectations in terms of her personality, her performance, her discipline, her poll numbers, and her fundraising. And while observers have raised doubts about her management skills—and contend that she can be thin-skinned and overly defensive at times—I can assure you of one thing: Weak, she is not. And that’s key.
The perception and/or reality of strength is by far the most important attribute a presidential candidate can possess. Which is why the Trump campaign had been on a sugar high as it faced off against Biden, who seemed progressively more frail and—as Trump once famously tagged Florida governor Jeb Bush—“low energy.” Largely due to the ravages of age, Biden was always going to be seen as the weaker candidate.
But Harris—in contrast to the meandering, 78-year-old, culturally-ossified-in-the-1980s ex-president—appears youthful, energetic, and feisty. And anyone who’s watched her at all knows she does not back down from a fight. Sure, she deserves much of the criticism she got for her 2020 campaign; it was often lackluster. But she can be devastating when it matters. Recall how she hit Biden with an almost fatal roundhouse during one of the debates, lashing out at him for his efforts to oppose school busing.
With that in mind, there’s going to be a hell of a run on popcorn for the Harris-Trump debate—or debates. Trump was all in when his sparring partner was Biden. Now, apparently, Trump is already grousing about a September commitment, whining rather predictably that the next debate host should be Fox News, not ABC. And Harris, gunning for a fight, has already adopted Trump’s mantra against Old Joe: anytime, anywhere, as often as possible.
So, why the underestimation of Harris? Her 2020 campaign is one reason. Five and a half years ago, she stumbled out of the blocks. And yet, in politics, there’s nothing like getting your clock cleaned to learn some important lessons. It’s already clear from her new staffing moves that she’s not going to turn the ship over to friends and sycophants. Instead, she’s enlisting hardened pros like Jen O’Malley Dillon and, some say, the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the 2008 Obama campaign, David Plouffe.
And then—to go along with her political savvy—the vice president has her experience, her career arc, and those psychological, social, and personal attributes, which I’ve observed up close.
Honed as a prosecutor, time-tested by her countless public appearances, and charming in private, she’s now proving to be a formidable adversary on the stump—and the perfect spokesperson to make the case against Trump. Her speeches this past week have been masterfully cogent, and sometimes blistering, indictments of the GOP ticket, highlighting the hypocrisy of her rivals, who, despite being in the pockets of the privileged, are running as champions of the working class.
Those who have lowered expectations of Harris will be in for a jolt. Such prejudices (by which I mean both prejudgment and inexcusable bias) may well work in her favor. They’ll allow her to outperform her opponents and the presuppositions of the pundits—which, in politics, often translates into connection with voters.